I´ve just read the macroeconomic policies proposals of Mr. Marina Silva presidential candidacy, and I´ve got positively impressed by the objective to create a Fiscal Council. Actually, this is a measure adopted by some countries around the world, with various designs. By clearly setting its objectives and ensuring its Independence, it would be a great achievement for higher Fiscal Transparency and likely improvement of Fiscal Accounts on a sustainable basis. I will comment more on this in future posts.

View for 2015

I´m quite pessimistic about Brazilian economy on next year. The high inflation suggests the need for monetary tightening and fiscal austerity measures, which might damage economic activity in the short-run. Actually, considering the current weak economic activity and the low consumer and business confidence, economic activity is already expected to be weak.

Monetary and fiscal policies will trail the opposite direction in the worst-case scenario of water/energy rationing. This is the unknown variable, which seems to be more and more likely with the lack of rain. I´m quite pessimist at this time and i hope I´m wrong about the chaotic scenario of lack of water (in São Paulo state) and energy rationing all over Brazil. If we are complaining about the weak growth rate currently, next year will be even weaker, with possibility of long-lived recession. In this situation, investment plans will shrink even more...

World Cup is coming soon! Of course I hope Brazilian team will make it to the final and get the so desired trophy! But regardless the final outcome, I really hope the whole event occurs with no big problems.